I’m calling bullshit on Huckabee not running
May 14, 2011
Posted by on
Imagine, for a minute, that you ran for president, four years ago, and lost. While you didn’t win, people thought you had potential as a candidate. So in 2012, you act like you’re running for president, going on talkshows and the like. Everyone thinks you’re running. You have some opponents in your party, but you top the polls. Then, in the span of about two weeks, your opponents numbers begin to plummet, making you the clear frontrunner. So, what do you do? Run or not run?
Well according to Huckabee’s aides, the answer is to be “likely to forego” running. The media is eating this up, and the likelihood of Huckabee announcing a run has plummet on Intrade to about 25%. The excuse for not running, apparently, is that Huckabee doesn’t want to face scrutiny and doesn’t want to lose his lucrative media career.
Bullshit. Huckabee already faced plenty of scrutiny in 2008 and if he thinks his media career is lucrative now, you can imagine what it will be like after he wins the primary. This sounds suspiciously like Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 2003 Tonight Show announcement that he was running for governor – his aides said he was “leaning against” running,the media bought it, and then it was more of a shock when he announced he was running. It’s an excellent strategy, and it probably helped propel him to victory.
So here we have the exact same pattern – everyone assumed Huckabee was running, and now, just before the announcement, we have rumors of a sudden, baseless change of heart. According to intrade I’m 75% likely to be wrong, but I say he’s running.