Recent polls show Newt Gingrich with a significant lead over Mitt Romney, with as much 24% of the vote (irony intended). So, after I correctly predicted that Cain would fall (although not exactly why he would fall), am I ready to do the same with Gingrich? Not so fast. Gingrich has a few advantages that the other non-Romney candidates don’t:
1.We already know what’s wrong with him. We know Gingrich is a typical corrupt Washington politican who’s current wife was the mistress that caused him to break up with his second wife, who in turn was his mistress during his first marriage. We know Gingrich was kicked out of Congress by his own party in 1997, that he was the only Speaker of the House in the history of the US to be sanctioned for ethics violations, and that he was one of the leaders of the highly unpopular impeachment of Bill Clinton (which having an affair with his current-wife-then-mistress). We know all that, and he’s still leading the Republican field. If he can hold the lead with all that history, what can possibly arise that will cause him to lose it? He has to commit at least a second or third degree felony if he wants to outdo himself.
2.He’s connected. Gingrich has been a big time Republican politician since 1979. You don’t go for that long without building some major connections and loyalties with Republican funding sources.
3. He’s an old white guy. Now hold on – I know you’re all yelling about how Herman Cain was on pace to win. Just answer me this: what do John McCain, (skip one), Bob Dole, George Bush, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon (1968), and Gerald Ford have in common, other than being the last few Republican nominees? Of course, all white men over 60 during their elections. I left out George W. Bush, who was under 60, but I guess he at least the son of a very old white guy, so that might make up for it.
So is the Marshmallow Man a sure winner then? I dunno. Here’s why he might not win:
1. There’s a lot of bad feelings between him and other Republicans. John Boehner had a major hand in kicking him out, among other things. Newt might need the grassroots of the party to support him – who would’ve seen that coming?
2. He might have some liberalism issues. Gingrich was seen as a poster-boy for the GOP during the 90s and he is doubtlessly enough of an asshole to qualify as a GOP contender, but could it be that the far right turn the party has taken has left even Gingrich behind? Let’s see – he’s come out in favor of a guest worker program did a campaign to promote education with Al Sharpton and Arne Duncan. And he was slammed by the right after he criticized Paul Ryan’s budget proposal as too radical.
3. He’s weak against Obama. The polls show that Gingrich is much less likely to beat Obama than Romney. Moreover, he has been accused of luxurious spending habits and a lack of discipline that caused much of his staff to resign early in his campaign. So the establishment might want to put the brakes on Gingrich’s campaign if they want Obama out of the White House.
So the conclusion? I dunno. The way I see it, it’s Gingrich or nobody, but I still think nobody has the edge. So I’m sticking with nobody as the GOP nominee for the time being. In actuality, as we have seen many times already so far, the most likely result is that something totally unpredictable will happen and someone we never expected other than Romney will find themselves in the lead.
Poor Romney. He should start a third party for revenge, he really should.